Great Lakes Conflict Early Alert Report Weekly Assessment
by Conflict Early Alert Report Vol.1.14

Great Lakes Conflict Early Alert Report Weekly Assessment

http://www.glcss.org/php/reports/CEAR%20Vol%201%2014final.pdf

CEAR Weekly Assessment - Contents

Zone 1: Zone Volcano (Uganda, Rwanda, and DRC)
  Peace and Security
    Tripartite Plus nations agree to joint action against rebel groups
    Third group of FNI disarm
    North Kivu: A developing MONUC/FARDC strategy against the FDLR
    South Kivu: 8 FDLR killed in Mugaba forest
    South Kivu various NGO reports
  Democracy and Governance
    South Kivu: Procedural dispute with the new budget
  Humanitarian 
    Ituri: Returnees from Uganda in need of assistance

Zone 2: EAC-Lake Sango Triangle (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania)
  Peace and Security
    Peace holding between Turkana and Merille
    Tana River District joins Kenya's list of hotspots
    Mt. Elgon remains volatile
  Democracy and Governance
    Kenya: Corruption improved, security worse
    Kenya: Gender equality in government
  Humanitarian
    RVF death tolls grow

Zone 3: The Kapototur (Karamajong, Pokot, Toposa and Turkana tribes)
            Cradle of Man Triangle (Uganda, Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia)
  Peace and Security
    Karamojong remain volatile
  Humanitarian
    Karamoja: Food insecurity persists, disease threatens goats and sheep

Zone 4: The West-Nile Triangle (Sudan, Uganda, and DRC) 
  Peace and Security
    AU to monitor LRA peace accords
    ICC indictments remain a key LRA negotiation point

Zone 5: River Oubangui Corridor (Sudan, CAR, and DRC)
  Peace and Security
    UFDR signs peace agreement

Zone 6: Equator Triangle (RoC, DRC and CAR) and Angola
  Democracy and Governance
    FARDC killed unarmed civilians in January's Bas Congo election protest
  Humanitarian
    Kinshasa floods increase disease risk

Zone 8: The Benguela Corridor (DRC, Zambia, Angola)
  Peace and Security
    Confirmed Zambian troops in DRC 
  Democracy and Governance
    Nyunzu: Administrator complains about FARDC 68th Brigade
  Economic and Development
    Anvil Mining embroiled in another dispute
  Humanitarian
    USAID aids flood victims

Zone 9: Lake Tanganyika Corridor (Tanzania, DRC, Burundi and Zambia)
  Humanitarian
    Expelled Burundians from Tanzania continue to cross border
    Repatriations

Zone 10: Zone CEPGL (DRC, Burundi and Rwanda)
  Democracy and Governance
    FNL extorting money in Bubanza
  Economic and Development
    CEPGL relaunched

Zone 11: The Kagera Triangle (Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda)
  Humanitarian
    The negotiated return of expelled Rwandans to Tanzania

Zone 12: Rusumo Triangle (Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi)
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Dear Readers:

This week we have made some changes to CEAR. First, in our narrative we have built four categories: Peace and Security, Democracy and Governance, Economic and Development, and Humanitarian. We have made these changes based on reader feedback and we hope you approve.

Second, we are taking our first step to building our quantitative database. This means we are overhauling our risk ratings; therefore, we have suspended publication of the risk table that usually appears at the beginning of the newsletter. Once again this move was based on reader feedback and we hope you approve.

Your comments are welcome.

Regards

The CEAR Team

cear@glcss.org  

The CEAR focuses on the 12 zones established by the ICGLR as region-based Border Security Management Framework (BSMF):

        • Zone 1: Zone Volcano (Uganda, Rwanda, and DRC)

        • Zone 2: EAC-Lake Sango Triangle (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania)

        • Zone 3: The Kapototur (Karamajong, Pokot, Toposa and Turkana tribes)
                     Cradle of Man Triangle (Uganda, Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia)

        • Zone 4: The West-Nile Triangle (Sudan, Uganda, and DRC)

        • Zone 5: River Oubangui Corridor (Sudan, CAR, and DRC)

        • Zone 6: Equator Triangle (RoC, DRC and CAR)

        • Zone 7: The Atlantic Triangle (DRC, RoC and Angola)

        • Zone 8: The Benguela Corridor (DRC, Zambia, Angola)

        • Zone 9: Lake Tanganyika Corridor (Tanzania, DRC, Burundi and Zambia)

        • Zone 10: Zone CEPGL (DRC, Burundi and Rwanda)

        • Zone 11: The Kagera Triangle (Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda)

        • Zone 12: Rusumo Triangle (Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi)

Zone 1: Zone Volcano (Uganda, Rwanda, and DRC)

Descriptive summary: This zone is currently the most volatile. It is characterized by security complexities. The main complexities are the range of states involved in this zone, mutual distrust, and roots causes in lack of good governance, and identity politics.

Negative Security Actors/Factors: Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), former Rwandese Armed Forces (ex-FAR), Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda (FDLR/FOCA), FNI, Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), Peoples Redemption Army (PRA), dissident members of the Congolese Army (FARDC) lead by Laurent Nkunda, ex-soldiers and militias waiting for demobilization.

Current Status:

Peace and Security

Tripartite Plus nations agree to joint action against rebel groups

At a Tripartite Plus meeting of each nation’s head of military in Burundi, Uganda, Burundi, DRC, and Rwanda agreed to plan and execute joint military operations against the armed groups of the region. Specifically, the DRC agreed to increase its military efforts against the armed groups in the Eastern DRC. The primary targets would be the FDLR and remnants of the LRA in Garamba National Park.

The DRC agreed to start its action within a two month period in the following areas: North and South Kivu, the frontiers of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. This action could include joint-military action, which is subject to the agreement of a 4 June meeting in Kinshasa of the countries' Foreign Ministers. However, the DRC has stressed this does not mean that it will allow the troops of its regional partners in the DRC.

In addition, they agreed to utilize the intelligence already available at the Intelligence Fusion Cell in Kisangani, as the basis for establishing these operations.

This meeting was the first time all four heads of military had met under the Tripartite Plus platform. This included: Samuel Gahiro (Burundi), Kisempia Sungulanga Lombe (RDC), James Kabarabe (Rwanda) and Aronda Nyakarima (Uganda).

In addition, the countries jointly agreed to enforce sanctions upon the names that had been presented at the March 2007 Tripartite Plus meeting.

(See North Kivu section for a proposed strategy)

Third group of FNI disarm

Now that Peter Karim has joined the FARDC as a colonel, the disarmament of his militia continued as scheduled. Another group of militia reported to the Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) camp this week. Some 10 RPG 7s were recovered in the disarmament process.

MONUC continues its active patrols in Ituri. At this stage with the disarmament of the FNI, Ituri has reached a milestone in the last 10 years.

North Kivu: A developing MONUC/FARDC strategy against the FDLR

The situation in North Kivu will develop over the next two months into a volatile mix of FDLR surrounded by four FARDC mixed brigades with an increasingly active MONUC deployment of mobile operations bases. Last week, the FDLR clashed with Alpha Brigade, which is commanded by FARDC Colonel Mosala. The clash took place three kilometres from Mabanga and eight FARDC soldiers were killed and five wounded.

Significantly, the MONUC/FARDC strategy is starting to take shape. Based on the strong success of the mobile operations base strategy, which was utilized in 2006, MONUC has established an offensive operations line to the east of the Virunga Mountains on the Rutshuru-Ishasa axis, which is northeast of Goma. The offensive line consists of six mobile bases in the following locations: Kirumba, Mbughavinywa, Mutwanga, Nyamalima, Kishero, and Kinigi.

These bases will allow for joint patrols with the mixed Bravo brigade, based in Rutshuru, commanded by former Nkunda commander Colonel Makenga. Bravo brigade, with strong MONUC support, appears to be positioned to conduct sweeping operations that will force the FDLR away from the border and into concentrated formations to the west. This mobile operations base strategy has also included the deployment of a temporary helicopter base at Iterbero, which will provide much needed air support for the patrol activities.

It can also be expected, once MONUC manpower and air support is released from Ituri, that MONUC will deploy a similar mobile operations base strategy on the west side of the Virunga Mountains, just to the east of Masisi where FARDC Charlie brigade is positioned. This will allow for Delta brigade to be used in the same manner as Bravo since Delta is commanded by former Nkunda Colonel Faustin.

In essence, if MONUC can find the political will in Kinshasa and New York, Alpha and Charlie brigades (FARDC led) will be used as blocking forces, with MONUC integrated in their positions, and Bravo and Delta brigades will be used as pushing-engagement brigades against the FDLR. The timing of this offensive will depend on the release of additional MONUC manpower and air support from Ituri, and of course, MONUC political will, which is questionable.

The above scenario expects MONUC to escalate their Psyops campaign to an appropriate military level and not the current DDR approach. This activity should be coupled with signal activity that will sever the FDLR command and control structure to include jamming appropriate radio frequencies for the Motorola radios that have been acquired and blocking the public mobile network where available.

This activity will allow the vast majority of the FDLR who want to voluntarily disarm to flow to the mobile operations bases through safe corridors established and monitored by MONUC and not the mixed brigades. This will then expose the approximately 2,000 hardcore FDLR/FOCA fighters and allow FARDC/MONUC to have numeric and firepower superiority.

Until this strategy is executed, CEAR believes, based on the current situation, the FDLR will continue to ambush the FARDC brigades to drain their will to fight and probe their ability to be a blocking force in case they need to break-out to the north or southwest.

South Kivu: 8 FDLR killed in Mugaba forest

The FARDC launched an operation against the FDLR between 12 and 15 April 80Km southwest of Bukavu and killed eight FDLR and rescued two female Congolese hostages that were being held by the FDLR.

This military operation was in response to a series of attacks by the FDLR that killed three civilians and caused others to flee their villages. In addition, the FDLR is accused of committing atrocities in the Mugaba forest near Walungu.

South Kivu various NGO reports

A NGO based in Katana, northeast of Bukavu, reported this week that on the night of 10 April two different units of the FARDC had a running gun battle because of a dispute on how they would or would not share the money they had recently stolen from the local population.

Eight deserters, two police and weapons captured near Uvira

After reports of men with weapons moving through the area, the police and the army conducted an operation at Kitundu and Katembo near Uvira on 12 April. The intercepted men were eight military deserters and two police deserters with two weapons that have been described as heavy weapons and eight Kalashnikov rifles. In addition, they carried other military items that have not been described.

Vigilante action at Kaniola

The local population of Kaniola arrested four people accused of being look-outs and collaborators of the FDLR after the attacks by the FDLR/RASTA. One person was lynched in Izege but the last person was handed over to the FARDC.

Democracy and Governance

South Kivu: Procedural dispute with the new budget

The South Kivu Provincial Assembly is involved in a procedural dispute with the new governor, Celestin Cibalonza. The Provincial Assembly claims it is their responsibility to approve the final budget before it goes to Kinshasa with the governor submitting his changes to the Assembly, and then they agree on a final budget before it is presented to Kinshasa.

According to the Assembly, Article 197 of the constitution states that the Provincial Assembly is the independent financially and administratively and the governor must submit his changes to the Assembly for approval. Cibalonza responds that he has only gone to Kinshasa at the invitation of the Minister of Interior and he is accompanied by deputies from the Assembly and his mission is to ensure that South Kivu gets its share of the federal revenue.

Humanitarian

Ituri: Returnees from Uganda in need of assistance

According to the Comite de liaison de l'Ituri there are 10,423 Congolese who have returned from Uganda in need of food, drinkable water, and healthcare in the Semliki plain. They occupy the following areas: 5,283 in Nyamavi, 2,985 in Kiagor, 811 in Kalyabugongo, 200 in Kanzoka, 321 in Ngao, and 823 at Boguma.

In the territories of Djugu and Irumu on the shores of Lake Albert there are 5,534 returnees.

It total, including other locations, there are 23,291 people in need of assistance.

Zone 2: EAC-Lake Sango Triangle (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania)

Descriptive Summary:

Border area surrounding Lake Sango (Victoria) The area has not been the site of hostile large scale armed action.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

This area is characterized by border conflict over access to fish resources. There are also common threats from illegal activities of flow of small arms, cattle thefts, and smuggling of stolen automobiles and other items.

Current Status:

Peace and Security

Peace holding between Turkana and Merille

The state of insecurity is still unimproved in the southern areas of Turkana especially, Lokori, Lomelo and Kainuk. In addition, Kibish & Lapur division in the north are also experiencing high levels of insecurity due to attacks by the Dongiros of Ethiopia.

The peace between the Turkana community and the Merille people of Ethiopia is holding and is no longer under threat following the return of the last animals, which had been stolen by individuals from the two communities.

Tana River District joins Kenya's list of hotspots

Tana River district, near Kenya's coast, is the scene of the latest pastoralist conflict between the Wardei and Orma communities. The conflict first erupted this year two weeks ago when two people were killed at Hosingo village, about 16 kilometers from Bura town. This week's clashes started when Chrisiri, an Orma village, was attacked and one woman was killed and 108 houses burned. Their goats were either shot or burned in the houses.

Later the same day, the Orma community in a revenge attack targeted a 37 year-old man in Bura town but he was saved by the Kenya Police Reservists. Later that night the Wardei struck again when they slashed a 70 year old man to death at Besabi and set fire to at least 66 houses.

Although this is the first clash this year, last May Coast Provincial Commissioner Ernest Munyi warned the communities against circulating hate leaflets and violence. The Wardei, which migrated from Somalia, are seen as outsiders by the Orma and other communities.

Mt. Elgon remains volatile

As reported by the East African Standard, Mt Elgon remained tense, with the displaced, who are camping at Kopsiro trading centre, clashing over rations. Five people were injured and were admitted to Kapsokwony District Hospital. Separately, human rights activist Stephen Musami, said raiders attacked Chebkube at midnight on Tuesday and injured two people.

Democracy and Governance

Kenya: Corruption improved, security worse

According to a poll by Strategic Public Relations and Research in Kenya 45.5 percent of Kenyans said graft had increased since the 2002 elections. On balance about 40 percent of the respondents said corruption had decreased and 12.6 percent said the situation had not changed.

In others words, some 52.6 percent said that corruption in Kenya had either improved or remained the same.

But Kenyans split almost evenly on their view of the government's effort. Some 49.9 percent said the government was committed to fight corruption and 46 percent said the government was not committed.

In terms of overall security, 47.9 percent said that insecurity had increased and 31.5 percent said it was better while 19.2 percent said it remained the same

Kenya: Gender equality in government

In the same study by Strategic Public Relations and Research, 65.3 percent of the female respondents did not feel they were adequately represented in public office and only 31 percent said they were satisfied with the number of women in public office.

Humanitarian

RVF death tolls grow

Tanzania Prime Minister announced this week that the Rift Valley Fever death total had grown to 89 with an alarming 17 additional deaths in Dodoma Region in one week. With a mortality rate 35 percent of 249 total infections to date, RVF remains a significant threat in Tanzania and the region if allowed to spread.

Nearly 1.6 million doses of vaccine have been distributed and the government has suspended cattle auctions and made animal dipping compulsory.

Zone 3: The Kapototur (Karamajong, Pokot, Toposa and Turkana tribes)
            Cradle of Man Triangle (Uganda, Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia)

Descriptive Summary:

The north eastern, north western Kenya, the south eastern Sudan and south western Ethiopia continue to be characterized by conflict among pastoralist groups, whose logic for socio economic reproduction revolves around movement in search of pastures and water alongside with extreme levels of cattle predation.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Tribal conflicts exist between the Karamajong, Pokot, Toposa and Turkana tribes. Weak or non-existent border security and state presence plagues part of this area as does a steady supply of weapons from Somalia and other areas. Drought has increased the risk of conflict in this area.

Current Status:

Peace and Security

Karamojong remain volatile

As reported in previous CEARs, this area has the potential to remain volatile.

Humanitarian

Karamoja: Food insecurity persists, disease threatens goats and sheep

District officials and NGOs working in the region report that household food stocks and internal supplies to markets are very low, following poor harvests in 2006. An estimated 500,000 people are moderately food insecure and are dependent on WFP food distributions for half of their minimum daily energy requirement.

Most of the grain commercially available is supplied from neighboring districts, such as Soroti and Mbale. Food prices are reportedly higher than normal, limiting access to food, especially for over half of the households that have no livestock to sell or exchange for cereals.

With no significant agricultural activities taking place, many of the poorer pastoralist households now depend on the limited labor opportunities available, including stone quarrying, collecting wood-fuel, gathering wild berries, vegetables and honey as well as hunting small animals. Households with livestock can sell animals and use the proceeds to access food from markets. Livestock/cereal terms of trade are stable, affording these households adequate food.

Predominantly dry conditions, normal for this time of the year, continue in Karamoja. The forecast for the upcoming season in Karamoja calls for below normal to normal levels of cumulative rainfall. If this season's rains are again poor, the number of food insecure persons will increase.

Local pasture conditions remain poor and Karamojong pastoralists are now grazing their livestock in the normal dry season grazing areas to the south and west of the region. Only a few livestock remain close to homes to provide households with milk and other products.

An outbreak of highly contagious Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR), a viral disease attacking sheep and goats, has been reported in Kaabong, Kotido and Moroto districts since March. Veterinarians first reported the disease in Kotido district on March 21, where it has reportedly killed almost up to two-thirds of the animals in some areas.

The disease spreads quickly in large flocks and herds, but can be devastating for poor households relying on only a small number of animals for food and income. The disease is spreading fast in all directions and may have crossed into other districts because of trade in the small livestock. The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries and district officials, are still assessing the situation to determine the magnitude of the problem, and no control or treatment measures are yet in place. Control measures, though necessary, will inevitable limit the income earning potential for households raising goats and sheep. (FEWS NET)

Zone 4: The West-Nile Triangle (Sudan, Uganda, and DRC)

Descriptive Summary:

This area has been the site of conflict for decades. This includes the Sudanese Peoples’ Liberation Army against the Khartoum government with spill-over affect to Uganda, the LRA rebellion against the Ugandan government with spill-over affect in the DRC and South Sudan.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

There is possible use of the territories of South Sudan and the DRC as bases by the LRA. There is a lack of infrastructure to facilitate movement of troops and porous borders with minimum extension of state authority. As a result of the delayed or failed disarmament process in the DRC, there is a steady flow of small arms and ammunition from the DRC into Zone 4.

Current Status:

Peace and Security

AU to monitor LRA peace accords

Uganda's Internal Affairs Minister Ruhakana Rugunda announced this week that the African Union (AU) would be stationed permanently at Ri-Kwangba, a LRA assembly point in South Sudan, to monitor the rebels who camp there. The AU monitors will be drawn from Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa and Mozambique with each nation sending two monitors. In addition, another six monitors will be available and are split between Uganda, the LRA and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA).

This is the third time the ceasefire agreement has been renewed since last August and the South Sudan government, which is mediating the talks, will facilitate the movement of LRA rebels from Owiny-Ki-Bul, an assembly point near the Uganda-Sudan border, to Ri-Kwangba near the DRC border. As reported in CEAR 1.13 the change from two assembly points to one was a key point that reopened the ceasefire talks.

ICC indictments remain a key LRA negotiation point

According to the Ruhakana Rugunda, head of the Uganda government delegation, the LRA leaders restated their position during a three hour meeting that the indictments against them were affecting the peace process and they should be withdrawn. The UN Court has indicted Kony, his deputy Otti and three other top commanders for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Rugunda has maintained that the position of the Uganda government is that the LRA must sign a final peace agreement and go through the traditional justice system before the ICC is requested to withdraw its charges. In the past, the government had offered amnesty to the rebel leaders if they would sign a peace agreement.

Democracy and Governance

CPA needs immediate attention

The IGAD Council of Ministers meeting in Nairobi called for an urgent regional meeting of heads of state to discuss the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) between South Sudan and the Khartoum government. The primary issue is the oil-rich Abyei area and the Abyei Border Commission, which is defining the North-South border.

The results of the Abyei Border Commission were supposed to be final and binding but Khartoum’s Sudan People’s Congress has rejected the findings of the Abyei Border Commission. An agreement on the North-South borders would allow South Sudan to access the revenue from this areas’ oil fields, which will aid in the reconstruction effort.

There have been increased militia activity in South Sudan and according to the South Sudan government these attacks are driven by anti-CPA forces.

Sudan's oil output of 330,000 barrels per day of crude accounts for more than half the nation's budget and forms a key part of the agreement. Under the agreement, oil revenues from the south would be split roughly on a 50-50 basis between the northern and southern governments.

South Sudan bans soldiers with guns from city centre

After an inquiry by Uganda President Museveni into reports that Ugandans livings in South Sudan were being intimidated and harassed by the security services, Military Police Commander Rolnyang of the SPLA banned soldiers from going to bars, restaurants and discos with guns.

The Ugandan complaint follows within weeks of a formal diplomat protest by Kenya regarding the harassment of its citizens by the security services in South Sudan.

Four arrested in Kampala race riots

Four people have been arrested in the death of Deval Rawal last week during a demonstration against the giveaway of the Mabira forest land that turned violent. In addition 17 others were arrested for acts of violence and looting.

The Ugandan government has condemned the violence at the highest levels and has reassured the Indian community that they will be protected. In response, the Indian community had planned a two-week strike through closure of their businesses and hospitals but this effort was dropped after MP Tanna Sing and Kampala City Council Councillor Pradip Karia intervened and calmed the Indian community.

Another week of demonstrations and teargas in Kampala

For the second week in a row, the Ugandan police used a water cannon, teargas, batons and live rounds to disperse hundreds of opposition supporters who protested the arrest of two politicians accused of inciting anti-Indian violence. MPs Beatrice Atim and Hussein Kyanjo were arrested on Monday and charged with participating in rioting last week in which three people were killed.

According to demonstrators, one police officer drew a pistol and pointed it at a man's head and police fired warning shots in the air as demonstrators smashed windows. Other witnesses claim that pro-government vigilantes in plain clothes wielding sticks were then allowed by the police to chase suspected protesters and beat them as they fled the area.

By weeks end, the government has disclaimed any involvement with the vigilantes and said they were not authorized to beat the protesters.

Humanitarian

Meningitis Update South Sudan

A meningitis outbreak that started this year has killed 661 people in South Sudan, according to the South Sudan government and the World Health Organization. More than 11,000 people have contracted the disease since January 2007 and another 5,218 people have exhibited cholera-like symptoms of acute watery diarrhea and of those 140 died.

Sudan is part of the so-called "meningitis belt" that stretches from East to West Africa and hundreds of thousands of South Sudanese returning home after two decades of war are at risk.

WFP cuts food for 1.2 million IDPS

According to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), a shortage of contributions has forced it to cut food rations for 1.28 million IDPs in northern Uganda. The WFP gives IDPs partial rations because they can grow some food on land near the camps to supplement what WFP gives them. In April, WPF was forced to reduce the individual food aid package for the IDPs to just 40 percent of the minimum daily energy requirement of 1,200 calories.

Zone 5: River Oubangui Corridor (Sudan, CAR, and DRC)

Descriptive Summary:

It is a significant frontier convergence. CAR’s border with the DRC is separated by the Oubangui River that has lacked adequate border supervision because of civil wars in DRC, CAR and Sudan. This factor has facilitated smuggling activities, trafficking of arms and cross border insurgence with ethnic affiliations shared on all sides of the border. This zone equally experiences poaching activities to include elephants in the CAR.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Known armed elements in this area comprise the LRA, Mbororo Nomads, and armed poachers. Lack of extension of state authority includes only 8 security posts along DRC-CAR border. CAR has 1200 km of border with Sudan with only three border posts. Like the frontier with DRC, CAR has had to deal with refugees and circulation of small arms from Sudan

Current Status:

Peace and Security

UFDR signs peace agreement

One of the last rebel groups in the Central African Republic-l’Union des forces démocratiques pour le Rassemblement (UFDR) –agreed to a peace agreement on 14 April 2007. The agreement was negotiated by Damane Zukaria after the UFDR president, Michel Djotobia, and UFDR spokesperson, Abakar Sabane, were captured last year.

The government of CAR and the UFDR agreed on the following points:

        • The UFDR would stop all hostilities

        • UFDR fighters are to arm and go to assembly areas for integration

        • An integration program would be developed

        • All political prisons would be freed

        • The UFDR would participate in the political process of CAR

        • The UFDR would renounce violence

 

The agreement between the government of CAR and the UFDR leaves the Front démocratiques de liberation du peuple centrafricain (FDPC) as the last rebel group fighting the government.

Zone 6: Equator Triangle (RoC, DRC and CAR)

Descriptive Summary: These states are emerging from internal conflicts and are afflicted by an influx of small arms, smuggling activities of timber and minerals.

Negative Security Actors/Factors: There is lack of extension of state authority to border areas.

Current Status:

No change in status

Zone 7: The Atlantic Triangle (DRC, RoC and Angola)

Descriptive Summary:

After a long civil war, the security situation has continued to improve significantly.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Currently, there are no active armed groups. The triangle suffers from land mines planted during the conflicts that engulfed the Republic of Congo and Angola. Like other zones, the long borders continue to constrain states from extending full state authority, although there are border accords signed in 1999 involving the DRC, Angola and the Republic of Congo on the management of border security.

Current Status:

Democracy and Governance

FARDC killed unarmed civilians in January's Bas Congo election protest

Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report this week that details the killing of more than 100 Bundu Dia Kongo members, an opposition-allied religious group when they demonstrated against the alleged fraud in regional governor polls in western Bas-Congo province.

According to HRW the FARDC soldiers "hunted down" members even after they had been injured and executed them. In one of the worst incidents on 1 February in the town of Muanda the soldiers arrived to help police, but instead attacked a Bundu Dia Kongo "zuikua" or place of worship. According to HRW they approached the church and opened fire.

In Boma town, protestors had agreed to disperse after they prayed in public but while they prayed, with some kneeling and some standing with their heads bowed, the army opened fire. The soldiers walked among the bodies to see who was alive and who was dead and then stabbed those who were still alive.

HRW also reported that the Bundu Dia Kongo supporters beat 10 police and military police officers to death and even entered a clinic and killed one policeman while he was being treated; however, HRW added that in its opinion the force used by the FARDC was disproportionate. In addition, HRW says they found no evidence that the Bundu Dia Kongo was an armed opposition group.

Humanitarian

Kinshasa floods increase disease risk

According to Caritas and the World Health Organization (WHO), the heavy rains in Kinshasa since January 2007 have left 1,000 people without shelter. In addition, the rains have contributed to an increased number of malaria cases with a total of 148,382 and 393 deaths. There is also a higher level of typhoid fever with 27,050 cases and four deaths.

Zone 8: The Benguela Corridor (DRC, Zambia, Angola)

Descriptive Summary:

The corridor lacks adequate modern infrastructure for border control purposes. The end of the Angolan civil war, which culminated in the signing of an accord with UNITA, in April 2002, has created a peaceful environment.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Security risks include the presence of land mines and armed bandits.

Current Status:

Peace and Security

Confirmed Zambian troops in DRC

According to information received from the 6th Military Region, they have confirmed the presence of Zambian military at Kapingu (220 km from Moba), which were later withdrawn to Kapingu some 35 km inside Zambia.

Democracy and Governance

Nyunzu: Administrator complains about FARDC 68th Brigade

The territory administrator has filed a complaint charging members of the FARDC 68th Brigade of extorting money from the local population and charging illegal taxes.

Economic and Development

Anvil Mining embroiled in another dispute

The Nkulu Majiba concession near Mutoshi in Katanga owned by Anvil Mining is involved in a dispute between the artisan miners and the purchasing agents of Anvil Mining. The miners are blocking access to part of the mining area over a payment contract dispute. The miners who are allowed to work the mine and are required to sell their production to Anvil contend that the price being offered by Anvil's agents is lower that the agreed price in their contract. Anvil contends that the quality of the miner’s ore is a lower quality than expected so the lower price is warranted. In the dispute, two guards have been injured and a jeep damaged.

In 2005, Anvil Mining was involved in a dispute that resulted in the killings of miners when they responded to revolt by the miners by asking the FARDC to assist them in putting down a revolt. Charges are still pending against some Anvil Mining managers from that dispute.

Humanitarian

USAID aids flood victims

Earlier this week, U.S. Charge d'Affaires Andrew Passen issued a disaster declaration due to the impact of flooding in Zambia. As a result, the United States Government, through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), has provided $50,000 in assistance for the distribution of emergency relief supplies through the Zambian Red Cross.

Zone 9: Lake Tanganyika Corridor (Tanzania, DRC, Burundi and Zambia)

Descriptive Summary:

It is characterized by a long border of both land and lake. State surveillance is limited. This factor has enabled non-state actors to smuggle arms into Burundi with ease. The zone is characterized by the problem of refugee flows, armed groups and landmines along Burundi’s frontier with Tanzania.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Burundi has 17 border posts, which it considers to be inadequate. Currently, there are four border posts between Zambia and Tanzania. Out of the four, only two are operating with full capacity.

Current Status:

Humanitarian

Expelled Burundians from Tanzania continue to cross border

During the last week a total of 200 persons crossed the border from Tanzania after they were expelled. This includes 152 at Kobero entry point, and 48 at Mishiha entry point. The total for the year is 1,702 expelled Burundians (924 families). Food for Hungry International provided three months food aid for 46 landless families expelled from Tanzania and living at Longore and 75 families in the Kigamba commune.

Repatriations

During the week, UNHCR registered only 30 returnees of which 22 came from Rwanda and eight came from Tanzania. Since January 2007, there has been 2,832 Burundian returnees including 87 spontaneous returnees, and this brings the total returnees since 2002 to 341,831.

Zone 10: Zone CEPGL (DRC, Burundi and Rwanda)

Descriptive Summary:

The zone is volatile. Underlying its volatility is the weak ability of states to monitor border movements. Rebel groups opposed to Rwanda and Burundi cross the DRC border with impunity. There exists a need for border demarcation especially between Burundi and Rwanda. Peace Accords among the DRC, Rwanda, and Burundi on security issues have reduced tension among them to a very large extent. In the meantime Burundi has become a full participant of the Tri-Partite Agreement on Regional Security in the Great Lakes.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

There is FDLR/FOCA and the National Liberation Front (FNL) rebels opposed to the regimes in Rwanda and Burundi respectively. While the FDLR has fixed bases, the FNL is transitory, and they have cooperated in joint operations against the two states. Arms are smuggled: in addition, landmines along the Ruzizi River are a critical issue.

Current Status:

Democracy and Governance

FNL extorting money in Bubanza

According to Mpanda Commune Administrator Cleophas Nizigiyimana, the PALIPEHUTU-FNL is extorting the population of his area on the movement of rice, oil and 20 Burundi Francs per household. In Gihanga the price is higher. The people are paying to the FNL 500 per head of livestock, 5,000 for each half hectare of rice and two sacks of rice during the harvest.

Economic and Development

CEPGL relaunched

This week Burundi, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo relaunched the Economic Community of the Great Lakes (CEPGL), which had been dormant for 13 years. The relaunch of the CEPGL was one of the projects agreed to in December 2006 as part of the Pact on Security Stability and Development at the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region.

The organisation will permit the free movements of people and goods within the region and plans to create a regional bank and an institute for agricultural research. It is a vital element in the growth of the region because, with Rwanda and Burundi joining the East African Community, the CEPGL provides the necessary link for the DRC to the eastern markets.

The CEPGL is being relaunched with a 970,000 Euro budget primarily financed by Belgium and the European Union.

Zone 11: The Kagera Triangle (Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda)

Descriptive Summary:

This zone is generally calm. The frontiers are porous and lacking surveillance equipment and human resources. Border demarcation between Uganda and Rwanda and Uganda and Tanzania is complete.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Smuggling activities are economic in nature and the most likely conflicts involve pastoralists, which develop over land issues. There are remaining refugee issues crossing into Tanzania and Uganda.

Current Status:

Humanitarian

The negotiated return of expelled Rwandans to Tanzania

Rwanda and Tanzania have agreed to allow previously expelled Rwandans to return to Tanzania and allow for a formal repatriation process. They have also agreed to develop a formal repatriation process.

Some 14 people were assisted by the Red Cross and the Rwandan government to return to their homes in Tanzania. The Rwandans were evicted from villages in the Chato district, Kagera region. According to some reports, some of the people were evicted without proper checks to ensure they were illegal Rwandans living in Tanzania and others were forced to abandon their cattle because they were rounded up while grazing their animals.

Zone 12: Rusumo Triangle (Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi)

Descriptive Summary:

This zone has stabilized since the elections in Burundi. The borders in this zone experience levels of smuggling activities, cattle rustling and motor vehicle thefts.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

The zone suffers from land mines especially along the Burundi-Tanzania borders. The frontier between Burundi and Rwanda has sections that have not been demarcated, a factor that tends to foster conflicts among farmers across the frontiers. There is also movement of refugees seeking to get to Burundi from Tanzania.

Current Status:

No change